Tides Of Change

Explore scenarios for global plastic waste cleanup efforts.

min: 1950, max: 2100
19502100
Pre-1991 Accumulation
0 M tons
Daily Removal Capacity
4,881 tons/day
Projected Reduction by 2035
0%
Zero Total Waste Year
Not reached by 2200

Notes & Assumptions:

  • Graph shows data from 1950 to 2100
  • Assumes that large scale cleanup efforts begin today
  • The default rate of ~€5,300/Ton is As per The Ocean Cleanup 2024
  • Projections assume constant growth rates and cleanup costs
  • Economic benefits of cleanup or profits from selling recycled materials are not factored into costs
  • Local infrastructure development costs not included
  • Ocean cleanup is 10x more expensive than river interception by weight
  • 90%+ of the marine plastic is already in the oceans
Philippines (35.2%)
India (12.5%)
Malaysia (7.2%)
China (7%)
Indonesia (5.6%)
Myanmar (3.9%)
Brazil (3.7%)
Vietnam
Bangladesh
Thailand
Rest of World (17.4%)

Key Conclusions:

Strategic Insights:

  • A Penny of Prevention is worth a Pound of Cure
  • Top 3 countries account for 55% of river plastic output
  • Regional cooperation could dramatically improve efficiency, but is unlikely, and so the simulation assumes uniform global distribution of effort

Cost-Effective Prevention and Cures:

  • Concentrated efforts are insanely effective, but unrealistic
  • A single river system in the Philippines, the Pahang Basin, accounts for 6% of global inflows
  • Distributed efforts are more realistic, but less effective
  • At current costs, it will take $70B a year to handle almost every single source of plastic to the oceans
  • At current costs, it will take $50B One Time to clean every single major garbage patch
  • At current costs, it will take $1.5-3 Trillion to clean every single piece of accessible plastic in the ocean